Our Shared Economy | July, 10, 2024
Child Population Could Have Long-term Effects On Economy
By Rachel Massaro and Heidi Young
Silicon Valley’s population continues to age, with a growing number of residents ages 65+ (up by 32% since 2012) and a shrinking number of children (down by 13% over the same period).1 Between 2012 and 2022, the population declined by more than 38,000 (-23%) for infants and preschool-aged children and by 36,000 (-20%) for children ages five to nine. The decline in the region’s youth population has contributed to a drop in public school enrollment (-10%) since the 2019/20 school year.2
If this trend were to continue, the region could expect to lose nearly one-fifth of its K-12 students and teachers by 2032 (roughly 57,500 students and 2,700 teachers)3 with economic impacts extending well beyond those in Elementary & Secondary Schools. An additional 360 jobs in other industries may also be lost as a result, including an estimated 36 jobs in Individual and Family Services, 95 at local restaurants, and 40 at hospitals/doctors’ offices. Regional economic losses of more than $280 million in output are also expected, along with as much as a $5.1 million loss of local tax revenues.4
Our Shared Economy estimates broader economic impacts that result from various events, such as changes in employment, labor income, output, or spending within a particular industry. Estimates are modeled using IMPLAN, an Input-Output economic impact assessment software system that combines extensive databases, economic factors, multipliers, and demographic statistics with a backward-linkage approach to purchases among industries.
NOTES: Enrollment declines are based on the California Department of Finance projections (October 2023); Silicon Valley includes Santa Clara & San Mateo counties; assumes the 2022-23 average student/teacher ratio of 21 in is kept constant.
References:
- Silicon Valley includes Santa Clara & San Mateo counties. ↩
- Based on enrollment data from the National Center for Education Statistics for Santa Clara & San Mateo counties, 2019-20 to 2022-23. ↩
- Assuming the 2022-23 average student/teacher ratio of 21 in Santa Clara & San Mateo counties is kept constant, and based on the projected enrollment declines from the California Department of Finance (October 2023). ↩
- Including county, sub-county, and special district estimated tax revenue declines from direct, indirect, and induced impacts. ↩
