Our Shared Economy

Child Population Could Have Long-term Effects On Economy

Published: July, 10, 2024

Silicon Valley’s population continues to age, with a growing number of residents ages 65+ (up by 32% since 2012) and a shrinking number of children (down by 13% over the same period).1 Between 2012 and 2022, the population declined by more than 38,000 (-23%) for infants and preschool-aged children and by 36,000 (-20%) for children ages five to nine. The decline in the region’s youth population has contributed to a drop in public school enrollment (-10%) since the 2019/20 school year.2

If this trend were to continue, the region could expect to lose nearly one-fifth of its K-12 students and teachers by 2032 (roughly 57,500 students and 2,700 teachers)3 with economic impacts extending well beyond those in Elementary & Secondary Schools. An additional 360 jobs in other industries may also be lost as a result, including an estimated 36 jobs in Individual and Family Services, 95 at local restaurants, and 40 at hospitals/doctors’ offices. Regional economic losses of more than $280 million in output are also expected, along with as much as a $5.1 million loss of local tax revenues.4

Our Shared Economy estimates broader economic impacts that result from various events, such as changes in employment, labor income, output, or spending within a particular industry. Estimates are modeled using IMPLAN, an Input-Output economic impact assessment software system that combines extensive databases, economic factors, multipliers, and demographic statistics with a backward-linkage approach to purchases among industries.

NOTES: Enrollment declines are based on the California Department of Finance projections (October 2023); Silicon Valley includes Santa Clara & San Mateo counties; assumes the 2022-23 average student/teacher ratio of 21 in is kept constant.


  1. Silicon Valley includes Santa Clara & San Mateo counties.
  2. Based on enrollment data from the National Center for Education Statistics for Santa Clara & San Mateo counties, 2019-20 to 2022-23.
  3. Assuming the 2022-23 average student/teacher ratio of 21 in Santa Clara & San Mateo counties is kept constant, and based on the projected enrollment declines from the California Department of Finance (October 2023).
  4. Including county, sub-county, and special district estimated tax revenue declines from direct, indirect, and induced impacts.

About the Blog

Joint Venture’s blog is a laboratory for thought leadership. It’s a place where our team and our leaders test concepts and prepare work for wider audiences. We welcome posts from opinion leaders in their field of expertise in order to connect with Joint Venture’s spectrum of audiences.

All Our Blog Posts: