Our Shared Economy | October 2025

Acute local impacts: Silicon Valley’s concentrated exposure to H-1B policy

By Rachel Massaro

Silicon Valley could soon feel the pinch of a new presidential policy that imposes a $100,000 fee on every new H-1B visa application. For the region’s largest tech employers, that adds up fast: If they filed the same number of new petitions as last fiscal year — about 7,660 applications — the bill would come to roughly $766 million in fees alone.

Silicon Valley’s H-1B visa holders contributed 8% of regional productivity across nine key tech-sector industries last fiscal year, as well as an outsized portion (4%) across all industries. While other parts of the country also lean heavily on H-1B workers, particularly in consulting and IT services (the largest petitioners nationally include Amazon, Microsoft, Cognizant, Tata Consultancy Services, and JPMorgan Chase), Silicon Valley’s outsized role in the national H-1B program makes the stakes especially significant for the region. In FY 2025, approved petitions from Silicon Valley tech companies accounted for about 17% of the national total, with15% of all new approvals and 17% of renewals.

Silicon Valley’s H-1B approvals are highly concentrated among a few major tech employers. Since 2020, Meta has accounted for about 40% of H-1B approvals in the Information sector, followed by LinkedIn (12%) and Oracle (7%). This concentration means just a handful of major firms could shoulder a disproportionate share of the new financial burden. The Valley’s top 10 petitioners alone secured 8,100 new approvals that year — about 11% of all new H-1B approvals nationwide. These companies include some of the country’s most recognizable names — Meta, Apple, Google, LinkedIn, Cisco, Nvidia, and others — underscoring just how dependent Silicon Valley’s largest firms are on high-skilled immigrant talent. Beyond those major players, thousands of Silicon Valley tech employers across four primary industries — Manufacturing; Information; Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services; and Finance and Insurance — collectively filed more than 37,000 applications, nearly all of which (99%) were approved.

While the proclamation will undoubtedly alter the cost structure and accessibility of H-1B sponsorship, the broader economic consequences remain inherently uncertain: whether companies will absorb the costs, reduce the number of applications, or shift strategies to reduce their reliance on H-1B workers. What is clear is that the ripple effects won’t stop at the corporate level but will reverberate throughout the regional economy.

Less spending by tech firms means fewer dollars for childcare providers, healthcare workers, and restaurant staff, as well as reduced income for small business owners ranging from landscapers to dry cleaners. Economic modeling indicates that for every $10 million drained from the nine key industries within the region’s tech sector, household spending declines by approximately $1.2 million; 17 local tech jobs and another 11 across supporting industries are eliminated; and local government tax revenues decline by an increment of $150,000. Specific to the new policy, modeling the H-1B application fees alone (a $766 million outflow) could translate into the loss of as many as 1,060 jobs throughout the regional economy, including approximately 84 jobs at restaurants, 30 at hospitals, 14 in retail establishments, and eight at childcare centers. It would also reduce local and state tax revenues by approximately $12 million and $28 million, respectively.

While the impact of these application fees may be countered by job growth, framing the impact in these terms underscores the close linkage between the availability of high-skilled immigrant talent and Silicon Valley’s broader economic ecosystem. Beyond the companies that face paying these unprecedented fees, the stake extends to households and local businesses that depend on the dynamism of the region’s workforce.

The new H-1B application fee restriction, which took effect on September 21, is set to expire after one year unless extended. However, since all cap-subject petitions for the next fiscal year have already been collected, applications for FY 2027 will be the first for which the new fee structure could have a material impact.

Notes: Our Shared Economy estimates the broader economic impacts resulting from various events, such as changes in employment, labor income, output, or spending within a particular industry. Estimates are modeled using IMPLAN, an Input-Output economic impact assessment software system that combines extensive databases, economic factors, multipliers, and demographic statistics with a backward-linkage approach to purchases among industries. For the purposes of this analysis, “tech” is defined by the four key industries within the tech sector, based on the primary industries for H-1B applications among Silicon Valley’s top 10 petitioners. The nine key industry subgroups were chosen based on their contributions to total Silicon Valley economic output. While this exercise primarily focuses on the technology industry, it is essential to note that the policy changes will also have a direct impact on other sectors of the economy.