Guest Insight | November 7, 2025

Can the Bay Area Build the Transit System It Deserves?

By Ian Griffiths

The Bay Area’s public transportation system has reached a critical juncture. Serving nine counties through 27 transit agencies, its success is crucial to the region’s mobility and climate goals. Yet ridership has recovered to only about 70% of pre-pandemic levels, resulting in funding shortfalls for many of the Bay Area’s largest transit agencies, including BART, Caltrain and SFMTA. Without new, sustainable revenue sources, agencies face the prospect of deep service cuts that would severely impact the mobility of millions. Ongoing regional efforts — including fare integration, coordinated schedules, and a proposed five-county funding measure — are underway, aiming to stabilize the system and attract new riders, laying the groundwork for a more connected, efficient, and customer-focused transit network. Decisions made in the next year will shape whether Bay Area transit merely survives or evolves into a world-class network for the decades ahead.

Bay Area Transit Fundamentals

Overseen by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC), the region’s 27 agencies carried about 1.3 million daily trips in July 2019. As of mid-2025, that figure stands at about 922,000 trips per day — evidence of a steady but incomplete recovery from the pandemic’s severe ridership losses.

Transit plays a modest but critical role in regional travel patterns, accounting for about 10 –12% of commuter trips and 4–6% of all trips across the Bay Area. More than half of residents (56%) report using transit at least occasionally, and more than a quarter of commuters (27%) ride weekly. Work remains the primary reason people take transit — half of riders cite commuting as their main purpose — followed by school, recreation, and errands or medical appointments.

Transit users are demographically diverse, but lower-income residents are most likely to rely on the system: 29% of riders fall into lower-income brackets, and 65% report not having access to another vehicle for their trip. For many, that reflects limited mobility options, household vehicle sharing, or disabilities that prevent driving — making transit an essential service for people with low mobility or limited income.

Ridership is dominated by a few key agencies: San Francisco’s Muni carries nearly half of all trips, followed by BART (18%), AC Transit (12%), and VTA (8%). While shorter local trips make up the majority of rides, longer-distance services like BART and Caltrain make up a greater share of total miles traveled on transit, and therefore play an especially significant role in reducing congestion and emissions.

Funding and Financial Challenges

Bay Area transit depends on a complex and increasingly fragile funding structure. Before the pandemic, a little more than a quarter of the region’s transit operating costs came from passenger fares. The balance of funding comes from local sources such as county sales taxes, bridge tolls, and regional measures. State contributions are comparatively modest, and federal funds play only a limited role, primarily supporting capital projects rather than ongoing operations.

Reliance on local revenue creates significant disparities among agencies. Systems such as BART and Caltrain, which drew more than 50% of their operating budgets from fares prior to the pandemic, are particularly exposed due to changes in ridership. Others, such as SamTrans and VTA, rely less on fares — recovering only about 5 to 7% of their costs — and depend heavily on local sales taxes. These variations make it difficult to establish consistent regional service standards or coordinated funding priorities.

The pandemic deepened these vulnerabilities. State and federal relief funds helped maintain service levels temporarily, but these one-time funds are nearly exhausted. Without new, stable sources of operating support, agencies could face annual shortfalls approaching $900 million beginning in 2027. These fiscal cliffs, if left unaddressed, would force agencies to reduce service frequencies, shorten operating hours, or even eliminate some routes — accelerating a “transit death spiral” of declining service and ridership.

To ensure long-term stability, transit agencies, advocacy groups, and state representatives are exploring funding mechanisms and structural reforms that will strengthen and protect this critical public asset.

System Challenges and Rider Experience

A key structural challenge is lack of integration across the region. The region’s 27 separate agencies operate largely independently, resulting in fragmented service, inconsistent schedules, and fare systems that can be confusing and costly for riders. The lack of coordination makes trips longer, less reliable, and less intuitive — especially when transfers are required across agency boundaries.

Inadequate frequency and reliability of service are also major challenges that limit the appeal of transit. In many parts of the region, buses and trains do not run often enough to compete with driving. Even where service has returned to pre-pandemic levels, overall hours of operation remain below what is needed to make transit a convenient, everyday option. Slow bus speeds — often the result of vehicles stuck in traffic — further undermine reliability. Riders comparing options may be willing to spend a little more time on transit, but not two or three times as much.

Safety and personal security also weigh heavily. While transit remains statistically safer than driving, concerns about cleanliness, antisocial behavior, and homelessness — particularly acute during the mid-2010s and early pandemic years — have discouraged some riders from returning. Although agencies have since increased visible staff presence, upgraded fare gates, and launched new safety initiatives — helping to rebuild confidence — more progress is needed to make everyone feel safe while using transit.

Reform Efforts and the Path Forward

In recent years, the MTC and partner agencies have adopted a shared vision for transformation — one centered on coordination, customer experience, and long-term financial stability.

In 2021, the Blue Ribbon Transit Recovery Task Force made recommendations codified in the Bay Area Transit Transformation Action Plan, calling for unified service planning, integrated fares, coordinated schedules, and a single, regionwide identity. These measures will boost ridership largely by better using the infrastructure we already have, making the system easier to use and more competitive with driving.

Pilot programs such as the Clipper BayPass, providing unlimited regional transit access to participating students and employees, have already demonstrated success, driving a 32% increase in ridership among participants. A new policy of free regional transfers, expected by the end of 2025, is projected to add roughly 27,000 daily trips.

At the same time, legislative action is advancing. Senate Bill 63 (SB 63), now awaiting the governor’s signature, authorizes a five-county regional funding measure that could raise approximately $1 billion annually to prevent deep service cuts and fund essential improvements. A small share — about 5% — would support initiatives to improve rider experience, such as fare integration, coordinated customer information systems, and bus-priority projects.

Parallel state efforts under SB 125, the State Transit Transformation Task Force, aim to align California’s policies and funding to complement these regional reforms.

Looking Ahead

The coming year will be decisive: Will Bay Area transit merely survive, or can it evolve into a world-class system? Returning to a pre-pandemic “normal” is not enough. Meeting the region’s economic, environmental, and equity goals will require a transit network that is efficient, integrated, and accessible — one that supports affordable housing near stations, reduces emissions, and connects all residents to opportunity. Passing the regional ballot measure authorized by SB 63 is a vital step, but true transformation will depend on leadership, collaboration, and an unwavering focus on rider experience over several years — with support from public agencies, civic groups, and the business community.

About the Author

Ian Griffiths is Principal Consultant, US Rail & Transit, at CPCS, and founder of the public transit policy group Seamless Bay Area. With over 18 years of experience, he has led projects in network planning, fare policy, station modernization, and governance reform, helping agencies create more seamless transit systems. He serves on California’s Transit Transformation Task Force and holds a Master of City Planning from UC Berkeley. This article is based on his presentation to the Joint Venture Board of Directors on September 19, 2025.