The HayWired Connection: Societal consequences of earthquakes

Why HayWired?

The HayWired earthquake scenario, led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), anticipates the impacts of a hypothetical, highly detailed and scientifically plausible magnitude-7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault and its aftershock. The scenario emphasizes the myriad of physical, technological, and societal impacts associated with the multiple hazards and cascading impacts of such an event. It was developed to engage with and guide residents, businesses, and policymakers of the bay region in earthquake-risk reduction and resilience-building actions. Such actions taken now, before an earthquake, will help to save lives and preserve well-being, maintain functional buildings and infrastructure, keep people in their homes, and keep businesses open, shortening the bay region’s recovery time when the next earthquake occurs.

Why Now?

As we complete Volume 3, Societal Consequences, we find ourselves in unprecedented times, with a pandemic changing daily life, wildfires raging around California, and protests for racial justice. Yet we can also use this time to reflect on the many investments in earthquake readiness we’ve already made, and to engage on the research finding in areas such as:

  • understand the societal impacts when buildings and infrastructure are damaged
  • expand earthquake exercise options
  • explore the policies and actions needed to reduce earthquake risk
  • drive future directions for societal impact analyses

HayWired: An Economic Disaster?

October 22, 10:30 AM - 12:00 PM PDT

This webinar presents the major results for the HayWired earthquake scenario economic study, which illustrate that it is a major disaster for the region, but one the region has the resources to recover from. The key levers that will determine how serious the immediate effects will be, what we can do about managing vulnerability and effects, and critical decisions that would affect the future following recovery will all be discussed. A panel of experts in buildings, business, resilience, and the economy will weigh in and answer your questions.


  • Anne Wein, Operations Research Analyst, US Geological Survey
  • Cynthia Kroll, retired Chief Economist for ABAG & co-author, Economics Chapter of Scenario
  • Steve Levy, Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy & co-author, Economic Chapter
  • Alexandria McBride, Chief Resilience Officer, City of Oakland
  • Isabel Guzman, Director, Office of the Small Business Advocate, Governor's Office of Business & Economic Development
  • Jeff Bellisario, Executive Director, Bay Area Council Economic Institute
  • Mary Comerio, Professor of the Graduate School, Department of Architecture, University of California, Berkeley

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Wired: A Call to Action

November 2, 3:00 - 4:30 PM PST

In this webinar we will highlight the HayWired themes of interconnectedness with a summary of the utility and transportation system restoration, economic impact analyses of the disruption of water, power, and telecommunication services, and an economic impact analysis of commute disruption. Our region’s heavy concentration of professional, scientific and technical work relies on employees having power and internet access and water and wastewater services, regardless of where they work, and the sudden loss thereof will be significant. Despite progress since Loma Prieta, this analysis illustrates some of the investments, planning and coordination that are still needed. These findings inform a call to action for more preparations for businesses of all sizes, as well as our infrastructure providers.


  • Anne Wein, Operations Research Analyst, US Geological Survey
  • Shijia (Bobby) Lu, Regional Planner, Association of Bay Area Governments & Metropolitan Transportation Commission
  • Lynn Von Koch-Liebert, Deputy Secretary of Housing and Consumer Services, California Business, Consumer Services, and Housing Agency
  • Jim Wollbrinck, Director of Emergency Management and Business Resiliency, San Jose Water Co.

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Modeling Economic Impacts of Earthquakes: Research and Practice

November 19, 3:00 - 4:30 PM PST

The objective of this workshop is to investigate how modeling of economic impacts of disasters can inform policy-making and planning at the city, county, and regional levels in the San Francisco Bay Area. The findings from the HayWired economic modeling effort will be shared to motivate the discussion and receive feedback on how such modeling exercises can be effectively used in practice. This workshop will also examine the current state of economic impact modeling and the use of modeling results in recent disaster recovery efforts. Based on the findings of the workshop, key fundamental and applied research questions and practitioner needs related to disaster economic modeling will be identified.


  • Anne Wein, Operations Research Analyst, US Geological Survey
  • Adam Rose, Research Professor & Director of the Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of terrorism Events (CREATE), USC Price School
  • Maryia Markhvida, Adjunct Lecturer, Stanford University & Disaster Risk Management Consultant, World Bank

Register Now