The HayWired Connection: Societal consequences of earthquakes
The HayWired earthquake scenario, led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), anticipates the impacts of a hypothetical, highly detailed and scientifically plausible magnitude-7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault and its aftershocks. The scenario emphasizes the myriad of physical, technological, and societal impacts associated with the multiple hazards and cascading impacts of such an event. It was developed to engage with and guide residents, businesses, and policymakers of the bay region in earthquake-risk reduction and resilience-building actions. Such actions taken now, before an earthquake, will help to save lives and preserve well-being, maintain functional buildings and infrastructure, keep people in their homes, and keep businesses open, shortening the bay region’s recovery time when the next earthquake occurs.
Volume 3, Societal Consequences, is now complete. Today, we find ourselves in unprecedented times, with a pandemic changing daily life, wildfires raging around California, and clear signals that disasters disproportionately impact communities at risk in our state. Yet we can also use this time to reflect on the many investments in earthquake readiness we’ve already made, and to engage on the research finding in areas such as:
- understand the societal impacts when buildings and infrastructure are damaged
- expand earthquake exercise options
- explore the policies and actions needed to reduce earthquake risk
- drive future directions for societal impact analyses
October 22, 10:30 AM - 12:00 PM PDT
This webinar presents the major results for the HayWired earthquake scenario economic study, which illustrate that it is a major disaster for the region, but one the region has the resources to recover from. The key levers that will determine how serious the immediate effects will be, what we can do about managing vulnerability and effects, and critical decisions that would affect the future following recovery will all be discussed. A panel of experts in buildings, business, resilience, and the economy will weigh in and answer your questions.
November 2, 3:00 - 4:30 PM PST
In this webinar we will highlight the HayWired themes of interconnectedness with a summary of the utility and transportation system restoration, economic impact analyses of the disruption of water, power, and telecommunication services, and an economic impact analysis of commute disruption. Our region’s heavy concentration of professional, scientific and technical work relies on employees having power and internet access and water and wastewater services, regardless of where they work, and the sudden loss thereof will be significant. Despite progress since Loma Prieta, this analysis illustrates some of the investments, planning and coordination that are still needed. These findings inform a call to action for more preparations for businesses of all sizes, as well as our infrastructure providers.
November 19, 3:00 - 4:30 PM PST
The objective of this workshop is to investigate how modeling of economic impacts of disasters can inform policy-making and planning at the city, county, and regional levels in the San Francisco Bay Area. The findings from the HayWired economic modeling effort will be shared to motivate the discussion and receive feedback on how such modeling exercises can be effectively used in practice. This workshop will also examine the current state of economic impact modeling and the use of modeling results in recent disaster recovery efforts. Based on the findings of the workshop, key fundamental and applied research questions and practitioner needs related to disaster economic modeling will be identified.
From March-May of 2021, we held a webinar series that presented results of the HayWired earthquake scenario telecommunications and ICT study, with each workshop focused on a different geography. The scenario analysis illustrated disruption to voice and data services from impacts to our fixed and mobile internet and voice communications infrastructure, electric power outages, and surges in demand for services following a disaster. Discussion points included the key levers that determine how serious the immediate effects will be, what we can do about managing vulnerability and effects, and critical decisions that would affect recovery from the event. The authors of the Telecommunications & ICT chapter presented their analysis, the processes used to create the analysis, and answered questions.
June 16, 2021
This webinar presents results of the HayWired earthquake scenario telecommunications and ICT study, focused on implications for amateur radio's role in resiliency and response. The scenario analysis illustrates disruption to voice and data services from impacts to our fixed and mobile internet and voice communications infrastructure, electric power outages, and surges in demand for services following a disaster. Discussion points include the key levers that determine how serious the immediate effects will be, what we can do about managing vulnerability and effects, and critical decisions that would affect recovery from the event. The authors of the Telecommunications & ICT chapter will present their analysis, the processes used to create the analysis, and answer your questions.
June 30, 3:00 PM - 4:30 PM PDT
This webinar presented the HayWired earthquake scenario study of Bay Area communities most at risk of population displacement and long-term recovery challenges following a major earthquake. Displacement and recovery issues pertain to areas affected by ground failure, concentrated building damage, or protracted lifeline service restoration that intersect with socially vulnerable or mobile populations. Seven policy implications concern the quality and quantity of housing for all income levels; strength of infrastructure; land use, evacuation and temporary housing planning; and recovery management and financing strategies. This webinar focuses on post-disaster housing challenges and opportunities. A panel of experts in housing retrofit, affordable housing, housing policy, and regional housing plans provided their perspectives on the study results and policy implications of the HayWired communities at risk analysis.
October 21, 11:00 AM - 4:00 PM PDT
On October 21, International ShakeOut Day and the anniversary of 1868 Hayward Fault Earthquake, the final rollout of HayWired V. 3 occurred. It recapped key chapters and talked about the applicability of what we've learned about societal impacts. It also took a closer look at engagement strategies to reach all communities and how the findings are being applied in academia. The HayWired Toolkit, which allows practitioners to exercise with the scenario, was also launched.
The day's events are captured in 5 videos, accessible below.
Volume 3 Panel: Resilience through Connections
Bay Area Earthquake Research:
Diversifying Communication of the HayWired Scenario with the Bill Anderson Fund Fellows:
|HayWired Exercise Toolkit Rollout:
Monika Stoeffl, California Resiliency Alliance and Mark Benthien, Earthquake Country Alliance (presentation PDF)
HayWired Scenario: Application & Impacts